Most political enthusiasts across the United States were rather intrigued to observe and analyze the first presidential debate of the 2024 U.S. election cycle. This enthusiasm was not necessarily because they expected an intellectually heavy, fierce, and energetic discussion. More likely, the excitement was related to the prospect of a rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Additionally, many were intrigued to see how President Biden would perform in this debate. There has been considerable scrutiny regarding Biden’s cognitive abilities and apparent decline. Video footage has frequently surfaced of President Biden struggling to articulate coherent sentences, stumbling over his words, and appearing considerably less coherent than we’ve seen from Biden in the past. The recent State of the Union address seemed to counter some of this scrutiny, as Biden appeared noticeably more energetic, coherent, and present than many were expecting. Thus, there was some mystery surrounding how Biden would perform. Would we see the Biden that was observed at the State of the Union, or would we see the Biden that has circulated across the internet of his incoherence and cognitive decline? Shockingly, what ended up happening at the Presidential debate was much different than anyone could have expected, and not in a good way for the Democrats.
President Biden’s debate performance on Thursday, June 27th, was catastrophic. From start to finish, President Biden delivered one of the worst debate performances in recent political memory. Biden’s voice was noticeably hoarse to start the debate, which was coupled with frequent stammering, incomplete sentences, and continuous rambling. At one point in the debate, Biden struggled to articulate a coherent sentence related to Medicare, and ended up saying “We finally defeated Medicare,” before being cut-off by CNN moderator Jake Tapper. This type of incoherence occurred frequently throughout the debate, with very few moments in which Biden appeared to capable. This is not to say that former President Trump performed perfectly, either. Though he was substantially more coherent, Trump also went on long tangents about illegal immigration, even when the question was utterly unrelated to immigration, and made several statements that were either partially or entirely false. However, this will likely not matter as Biden’s horrific performance will continue to overshadow any shortcomings related to Trump’s performance.
There has been considerable debate about whether Biden should be replaced with another candidate. Those who support replacing Biden have pointed out Biden’s pronounced cognitive decline, as seen in the debate, and his inability to defeat Trump, which was enhanced by Biden’s debate performance. Those who oppose replacing Biden believe that Democrats should not overreact to one bad debate performance and that Biden is still in the best position to defeat Trump. Although I am biased, as I am a fairly conservative Democrat who has found Biden to be fairly underwhelming as President, I genuinely believe that Biden must be replaced with a more capable candidate. Biden continues to underperform in the polling compared to Trump, and it will be nearly impossible to erase Biden’s performance on Thursday night from the minds of U.S. voters.
I will begin by providing some potential options to replace Biden, which I believe could perform significantly better than Biden against Trump. While this will be skewed toward my leanings, I plan on considering candidates that have the potential to appeal to a wide array of voters—progressives, moderates, independents, liberals, and even some conservatives.
The first, and potentially best option, would be Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Governor Beshear does suffer from a lack of name recognition, as Kentucky is not a highly populated nor politically contentious state on a national level. However, I anticipate the news coverage that would correspond with Beshear’s elevation as the Democratic nominee would significantly increase his name recognition.
From an electoral standpoint, while state politics can differ from national politics, this seems to be dissipating as politics becomes more partisan. The fact that Beshear won Kentucky by over 5 points in 2023 in a state that voted for Trump by approximately 26 points, should hint at Beshear’s ability to win over both moderate and conservative-leaning voters. Beshear also successfully won rural counties in Kentucky that had voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. This includes Powell County, which voted for Trump by nearly 50 points in 2020, and Nelson County, which voted for Trump by almost 37 points in 2020. Governor Beshear’s overall moderate appeal and ability to work with an overwhelmingly Republican legislature could bolster his standing among moderate voters on a national level.
Another potential option to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee would be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Although Shapiro has only been governor for roughly two years, Shapiro has gained some national attention due to winning a competitive state by nearly 15 points in the 2022 gubernatorial election. In his short time as governor of Pennsylvania, Shapiro has seen a net approval ranging between +30 to +35 and relatively high approval among moderate voters. Additionally, Governor Shapiro has a level charisma that is necessary in present-day politics. His speeches have often been compared to former President Barack Obama, as Shapiro speaks with a level of enthusiasm and clarity that President Biden is simply incapable of reaching.
The last potential opinion, and the person who has been floated around frequently recently as a viable candidate, would be Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Although Governor Whitmer would likely not be my most preferred candidate of the potential options, like Governor Shapiro, Whitmer proved that she is capable of winning by a large margin in a politically contentious state, as Whitmer defeated Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon in 2022 by roughly 10.6%. To provide a comparison, President Biden defeated former President Trump by approximately 2.75% in 2020. Whitmer is somewhat more polarizing than the previously mentioned candidates, and though I have some personal gripes regarding some of her actions as governor, I do believe that she would be significantly more capable of appealing to moderate voters on a national level, as she has worked with both Republican and Democratic state legislatures during her tenure as governor, and performed well among both moderate and independent voters in 2022.
Although I desperately want President Biden to be replaced with a capable candidate, I’m still unsure how likely it is that Biden will step down, although this possibility seems to be increasing. Currently, Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom are being frequently floated as potential nominees. If either Harris or Newsom are chosen as the nominees, the Democrats may perform as poorly as they would by simply keeping Biden as the nominee, as neither Harris or Newsom is particularly popular on national level. If the Democrats were smart about choosing a new nominee, they would prefer a Democrat that has shown the ability to win in battleground states, such as Whitmer and Shapiro, or even in deep-red states, like Beshear.
