Ecuador’s populist President Daniel Noboa and opposition candidate Luisa González will advance to an April run-off election after nearly tying in the first round of the February 9th, 2025 Presidential Election. President Noboa claims election fraud eroded his 8-point victory; González similarly alleges ballot fraud against her candidacy. The right-wing incumbent Noboa garnered 44.17% of the vote to the left-wing González’s 43.97%—an advantage of just 19,751 votes.
President Noboa’s right-wing National Democratic Action (ADN) and González’s left-wing Citizen Revolution Movement (RC) combined for over 9 million of the total 10.2 million valid votes cast; various minor parties collectively earned the remaining 1.2 million. While polling predicted the advancements of Noboa and González into the second round of voting, González was able to overperform aggregate polling in the first round due to the underwhelming showing of minor candidate Andrea González (no relation), a left-wing environmental activist.
Noboa and González will now contend in an April 13th run-off in a rematch of their 2023 showdown which Noboa won by just over 3 percentage points. Opinion polling forecasts another tossup race, slightly trending towards Noboa, heading into the second round election.
In the days following the first round election results, President Noboa accused his leftist opponents of electoral fraud. During his first post-election interview last week, Noboa cited Pollster Diego Tello Flores’s post-election poll that found Noboa won 50.12% of the vote to Gonzalez’s 42.21%. Luisa González and the RC party dispute the legitimacy of this poll. González also accuses her opponent of ballot fraud and alleges that Ecuador’s National Electoral Council (CNE) gave favorable treatment to President Noboa.
External observers, including the Organization of American States and the European Union, report no fraud perpetrated by either side.
The Organization of American States stated that it has not “received any indication of widespread irregularities.” claiming its independent vote tracker aligned with the CNE’s election day tally.
European Parliament Member Gabriel Mato, who led the European Union Electoral Observation Mission in Ecuador on election day, disputed fraud narratives “led by the RC presidential candidate and her party, and… being echoed by Daniel Noboa himself.” Instead, Mato praised the quick and transparent counting of ballots by the CNE, saying its “electoral process debunked [fraud] rumors.”
Several issues influenced Ecuador’s election including security, energy, and personal brands.
President Noboa made national security the focus of his campaign, targeting the rise of crime and the 2024 breakout of cartel violence in the Guayaquil region. With one of the highest murder rates in Latin America, Noboa has taken a tough-on-crime approach while in office. He has declared an “internal armed conflict” to raise pressure on cartels, passed a constitutional referendum on tougher security laws, and captured “El Chino,” the second in command of the drug cartel Los Lobos. Noboa claimed his actions resulted in a 15% decrease in violent deaths, while Luisa González labeled his buildups “a state of war” and pledges to instead tackle crime by increasing welfare spending and fighting poverty.
Energy is a top-of-ticket issue after nationwide 3-month power cuts cost businesses $7.5 billion and lasted as long as 14 hours daily for many Ecuadorian property owners. González has adopted this issue, which many voters blame on the Noboa administration, to campaign on diversifying Ecuador’s energy grid and reducing its non-renewable resource reliance.
The polarizing influence of leftist former President Rafael Correa, exiled in Europe on corruption charges, is being tested in this election. Despite his exile, his left-wing movement “Correísmo” has strengthened in Ecuador and bolstered the candidacy of Luisa González, herself a Correa protege. Whether Correísmo’s resurgence is strong enough to topple the respectively influential Noboa brand remains to be seen on April 13th.
DISCLAIMERS
Quotes translated from Spanish to English by the author, Rob Gioia.
